Sunday 05/17/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Sunday 05/17/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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maddux bb
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->906 - MLB - 3 units on San Francisco +161
#907 - MLB - 3 units on LA Dodgers +102
#911 - MLB - 3 units on Colorado -112
#923 - MLB - 3 units on LA Angels +112
#927 - MLB - 3 units on Baltimore +109

Not sure how they are doing?

SOMEONE ASKED LATE Yesterday. 1-4 Sat. Anyone tracking them lately ??
<!-- / message -->
 
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maddux bb

<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->906 - MLB - 3 units on San Francisco +161
#907 - MLB - 3 units on LA Dodgers +102
#911 - MLB - 3 units on Colorado -112
#923 - MLB - 3 units on LA Angels +112
#927 - MLB - 3 units on Baltimore +109

Not sure how they are doing?

SOMEONE ASKED LATE Yesterday. 1-4 Sat. Anyone tracking them lately ??
<!-- / message -->


These are saturday's picks. Other forums are posting them as today's.
 
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Tony Weston

Today's Selection:

Of course we came through yesterday as the Philadelphia Phillies come through and beat the Washington Nationals to give us a solid Comp Play winner in this spot.

We’re making it 2 in a row today as we’re heading to the NBA hardwood where we’re taking the Houston Rockets on the road at the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Rockets come into today’s game catching about 12 points at the Staples Center and we’re taking full advantage of that.

Consider that Houston has covered in 2 of its last 3 against the Lakers, both of those times catching points.

Keep in mind, too, that Los Angeles comes into today’s game having covered in only 4 of its last 10 games overall and is only 2-3 ATS its last 5 games at home.

Today, the Lakers will struggle again against a Rockets team that won Game 6 95-80 as a 9-point underdog. Take the points and take Houston on the road in this one.

3♦ ROCKETS
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline

Orlando at BOSTON

Just not enough points on the board tonight in this Orlando-Boston game, so let's play the UNDER in the 7th, and final game of this series.

The last 3 games played in this series have all landed UNDER the total, and 4 of the 6 in this series overall have played LOW.

That means that the UNDER between these 2 teams has come through 7 of the last 9 times these teams have tangled.

Game 7's are notoriously played close to the vest, with the defense usually dictating, so we are playing this Orlando-Boston battle UNDER the posted total.

2♦ UNDER
 
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Matt Rivers

For Sunday take the Mets out West.

I love Matt Cain and believe the guy is a total stud that, when on, can shut any team down, but with that said the Mets are sooooo much better than the light hitting Giants that you just cannot pass up Jerry Manual's boys at this price.

Mike Pelfrey is a solid young hurler that has not been great this season but the righty has been winning a lot and should be just fine here by the Bay. The G-Men flat out do not have many weapons offensively at all and could easily once again put up zero after zero.

Let's face it, the Mets are rolling right now. They fell down 5-1 the other day to Tim Lincecum and roared back like it was nothing. Let's not belittle that at all as the reigning Cy Young award winner should be able to close out that game but New York is just playing at too high of a level right now. Plus they did not even have Jose Reyes or Carlos Delgado on Friday night and then on Saturday completely dismantled a future Hall of Famer in Randy Johnson.

When the Mets are playing well they are scary because they truly are ultra talented and a team that can win it all. The bullpen issues of the past are really no longer there with K-Rod closing games out and an offense led by Wright, Beltran and Reyes is no joke.

Cain should hold his own and may even pitch better than Pelfrey but the difference in offenses and bullpens is too much to overlook as the Mets are once again a total no-brainer and must play at this number!
 
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Jeff Benton

Orlando at BOSTON -3

For Sunday’s Bonus Play, we’ll take the Celtics in a win-or-go-home Game 7 against the Magic from Boston.

32-0. That’s the Boston Celtics’ record in playoff matchups in which they’ve had a 3-2 series lead. Kind of hard to argue with perfection, isn’t it? In addition, the NBA’s most storied franchise has hosted a Game 7 on 17 previous occasions … and it won 14 times. Not exactly perfection, but pretty-damn close. That 14-3 mark at home includes a trio of Game 7 wins just since last spring. Boston beat the Hawks in Game 7 of the opening round last year; then it knocked off Cleveland in Game 7 of the conference semifinals; then just two weeks ago, the C’s eliminated the Bulls in Game 7 at the Garden.

What’s more, if you want to take it a step further, Boston has hosted an elimination game four times since last spring, beating the Hawks by 34 points, the Cavs by five points, the Lakers in Game 6 of the NBA Finals by 39 points and the Bulls two weeks ago by 10 points, going 3-1 ATS.

Now, I’m the first to admit that Orlando should’ve closed out this series two games ago. The Magic suffered a buzzer-beating one-point home loss to Boston in Game 4, then blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead in Beantown in Game 5. Win those two contests, and this series would be over. But the fact is, the Magic didn’t win those games, and they didn’t win them because they’ve lacked a killer instinct pretty much this entire postseason. And even though there’s little question that Orlando is the better, healthier all-around team, I do not trust this soft squad to take down the defending champs on the road in an elimination situation.

Bottom line: The Celtics have had numerous opportunities to throw in the towel this postseason, especially without their best player (Kevin Garnett) available. But they not only have refused to do that, they’ve ratcheted up their play every time they’ve had their backs against the wall, exhibiting the kind of physical and mental toughness that champions are made of. In the end, to get a team with this kind of heart, at home, in Game 7, at this cheap of a price, is too good to pass up. Lay the couple of points with the Celtics.

5? BOSTON
 
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Bobby Maxwell

Houston +13' at L.A. LAKERS

We've got a Game 7 FREE winner for you as we go ahead and grab the points with the Rockets in this one from the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

This is just too many points to pass up with the Rockets today. These guys have absolutely nothing to lose in this game. They were supposed to fold up the tent and give up when Yao Ming got hurt in Game 3, but they've won two of the last three games, blowing out Los Angeles in Games 4 and 6.

So grab the points and watch as they frustrate the Lakers by hanging in there right into the fourth quarter. We're not saying the Rockets are going to pull off the outright upset, but this is just way too many points to pass on. It'll be closer than most people think so grab the points with the Rockets.

Los Angeles has no real answer for Houston point guard Aaron Brooks who has torched them in two of the last three games. He led the Rockets in scoring in Game 5, but they got blown out by a determined Lakers' team in that one. Brooks has too much speed for the Lakers. Derek Fisher has no chance of staying with him and when the big men step over to stop his penetration, he's dishing to the shooters for wide-open three-pointers.

The key for Los Angeles has been the fact nobody is pitching in to help Kobe. This looks like last year's Lakers that couldn't manage a complete team effort. Los Angeles is just 2-4 ATS at home in the postseason and they are on other ATS slides of 2-6 on Sundays.

Houston has won two playoff road games already and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games after getting two days off. These guys are bruisers and that doesn't get affected in Game 7s. They will come out and rebound and play defense. That doesn't change in Game 7s. Scoring will be at a premium, but expect Brooks to continue his domination and you know Ron Artest is looking forward to hitting a few big shots.

The Rockets are going to be in this one into the fourth quarter. Grab the points with Houston as this one ends up closer than anybody thinks it will.

2♦ HOUSTON
 
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Karl Garrett

Houston at LA LAKERS -13

For Sunday, a NBA total winner for you, as I expect the Rockets and Lakers to play their 7th and final series game UNDER the posted total.

The last 3 games in this series have held LOW, but that is just the beginning of a bevy of UNDER trends that these two teams sport.

Houston is on an 8-2 UNDER clip their last 10 games, while Los Angeles is on a 7-2 UNDER run their last 9 games overall.

The LOW is also 6-2 between the teams dating back to the regular season.

Game Six on Thursday night stayed below the posted total by over 20-points, and while I don't expect this game to fall that far UNDER the posted price, I do expect it to still stay LOW.

Take the UNDER in Game Seven.

1♦ UNDER
 
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Chris Jordan

Houston at CHICAGO

We side with Rich Harden in this one, and lay the run line in an easy blowout win in this NL Central showdown. Chicago’s right-hander moved to 4-1 on the season after beating the Padres in his last outing, in which he gave up a mere two runs on four hits over six innings.

What was more encouraging was the fact he seemingly found his control and sustained it as he walked just one batter. Harden already beat the Astros on May 6 in Houston, holding them to three runs on eight hits over seven innings, so confidence shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

We’ll also list Brian Moehler, who may be coming in off his best outing of the season, but let’s not forget he made his season debut against the Cubs at Minute Maid Park on April 8 and was knocked from the game after just 1-2/3 innings, over which he allowed seven earned runs.

At 22-14, I like the Cubbies to devour the 16-20 Astros in front of the home crowd at Wrigley.

1♦ CUBS RUN LINE
 
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Big Al McMordie

Cincinnati at San Diego
Pick: Cincinnati

At 4:05pm our free selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the San Diego Padres. Which version of righthanded veteran starter Bronson Arroyo will show up this afternoon for the Reds? The one who shut down the Pirates over eight shutout innings to start the month, or the one who gave up nine earned runs, not once, but twice this season! It should be the "good" Arroyo as the 10-year veteran has wrested the title of biggest home-away pitching bias in the Major Leagues from guys like Wandy Rodriguez and Jamie Shields (However, Arroyo is pitching MUCH BETTER ON THE ROAD than at home). It's very strange to see someone with a strong record like Arroyo's (5-2) but with an ERA over seven runs. However, Arroyo is on the road for this game, and he is also at one of the strongest pitchers parks in baseball -- and a place where he has had success throughout his career. He did well against the Padres last season, going 2-0 against them in 2008 with a 3.38 ERA. Jake Peavy's record is the opposite of Arroyo's (2-5), and his ERA, while well under seven runs, is still uncharacteristically high for this former Cy Young winner. Unlike Arroyo, who has gotten plenty of help from his teammates, Peavy has had terrible run support, as evident in his last home start, which was one of his best of the season (and his highest strikeout total -- 12 over seven innings). Despite this dominating pitching performance, Peavy took the loss in front of the home crowd. Of course, that's one of the big differences between these two teams: San Diego's offense is weak, while Cincinnati can put up plenty of runs. Take the Reds as a nice-sized underdog here.
 
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Red Dog Sports

LA Angels at Texas
Play: Under 10

The Angels have played under in 6 of their last 8 and Texas has 7 unders, 3 overs and a push in their last 11 overall. Weaver has 2 overs and 4 unders this year and an ERA of 2.45 in his last 3 while Feldman has an ERA of 3 in that same time span with 0 overs and 4 unders. Look for the under to profit on Sunday.
 
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Tom Freese

Cincinnati at San Diego

The Padres are 26-11 their last 37 games as home favorites of -151 to -200. San Diego starter Jake Peavy has dominated the Reds in his career going 8-1 with a 2.31 ERA in nine starts. The Padres are 5-2 at home vs. the Reds. Cincinnati is 7-19 with Bronson Arroyo on the road vs. losing teams and they are 3-7 their last 10 games at the Padres. PLAY ON SAN DIEGO - (Peavy vs. Arroyo)
 
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Marc Lawrence

Play On: Baltimore w/Uehara

When the Orioles close out their weekend series with the Royals in Kansas City today they will send Koji Uehara to the mound knowing he has dropped each of his last 5 team starts. However, in those games Uehara owns a sharp 3.05 ERA as he's issued just 2 walks against 29 strikeouts. With Baltimore 15-5 the last 20 games in this series, and also 15-5 the last 20 games on this field, look for Uehara and the the Birds to come up big here today.
 
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Craig Trapp

New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: New York Mets

Rough loss on Bonus Play yesterday with TB and CLE leaving way too many runners in scoring position to get over 10 runs. But the good news is Craig hit his 5 star NL Total of the Month. The 5 star strongest plays of the day are 5-1 in Craig's last 7 days!! As always on Sundays Craig's Bonus Play is in the ESPN Night MLB Game of the day!!

Records

New York Mets 21-15, 9-7 away (Pelfrey 4-0, 4.89 ERA)

San Francisco Giants 18-18, 12-8 home (Cain 3-1, 3.00 ERA)

Betting Trends

Mets are 10-2 in their last 12 overall.

Mets are 4-0 in Pelfreys last 4 starts.

Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 games after losing the first 3 games of a series.

Mets are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

The Mets have dominated the SF Giants the last two years and they are going for the sweep of this early season 4 games series in SF tonight. The Mets have been tearing the cover off the ball lately scoring over 6 runs per game in the last 7 games. Pitching for SF today is CAIN who has been good this year overall but the last 3 games has given up over 3 runs per game on average and only getting into the 6th inning in those appearances. He will have to pitch very well or he will be shelled for multiple runs early. Pelfrey is not near as dangerous as his counterpart but he just wins going 4-0 so far this year. He will scatter his hits today and go deep in this game. Mets stay hot and pull off easy win. SCORE NYM 6 - SF 2
 
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Trends

ORLANDO (66 - 28) at BOSTON (69 - 26)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 116-85 ATS (+22.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 88-71 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 58-44 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 58-44 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 55-39 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
ORLANDO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games this season.
ORLANDO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 9-8 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 10-7 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


HOUSTON (60 - 34) at LA LAKERS (72 - 21)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off an upset win as an underdog this season.
LA LAKERS are 104-89 ATS (+6.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 287-238 ATS (+25.2 Units) in road games since 1996.
HOUSTON is 54-41 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 11-6 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 10-7 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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Orlando at Boston

Orlando:
15-5 ATS as a road underdog of 3pts or less
21-10 ATS playing with 2 days rest

Boston:
13-4 Over playing with 2 days rest
13-5 Over at home playing with revenge


Houston at LA Lakers

Houston:
2-10 ATS off SU dog win
14-31 ATS off ATS win

LA Lakers:
23-14 Over as DD favorite
15-2 Over at home after scoring 80pts or less
 
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HOUSTON vs. LA LAKERS
Houston is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games
LA Lakers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games at home
LA Lakers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home

ORLANDO vs. BOSTON
Orlando is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Boston
Orlando is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Boston's last 20 games
 

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